Evaluating the Efficiency-Resilience Paradox: A Comparative EventBased Analysis of Automated and Physically Redundant Ports During the 2024 Red Sea Vessel Bunching Crisis

Abstract

The 2024 Red Sea vessel bunching crisis revealed critical vulnerabilities in maritime supply chains, especially at high-throughput container ports. This study examines the Efficiency Resilience Paradox by comparing responses at the highly automated Guangzhou Nansha Phase IV terminal with the more physically redundant Ningbo-Zhoushan Port. Using a longitudinal dataset of 36 monthly observations from January 2022 to December 2024, derived from official throughput reports and maritime intelligence, the analysis applies Interrupted Time-Series Analysis, Mann-Whitney U tests, Levene’s Test, and engineering resilience metrics such as Maximum Drawdown, Recovery Slope, and Congestion Elasticity. The results show that Guangzhou experienced a marginally significant negative structural break (β₂ = −4.55, p ≈ 0.064) and a sharp reduction in variance, indicating limited operational flexibility, while maintaining lower peak wait times (3.0 days vs. 8.5 days at Ningbo-Zhoushan). However, the automated terminal reached a near-zero throughput nadir (0.1%), whereas Ningbo-Zhoushan sustained 3.1% growth and demonstrated a stronger recovery (RS = 5.05 vs. 3.65). Higher congestion elasticity at Guangzhou further suggests greater sensitivity to disruption compared to the more stable baseline port. Overall, the findings indicate that while ultra-high automation enhances efficiency under normal conditions, it may undermine resilience during complex supply chain shocks.